AFRICANEWS

Burundi

Nyerere: End of the peace talks?

War

The death of former Tanzanian president Julius Nyerere who has been the facilitator of the Burundi peace talks at Arusha has cast a dark cloud on the future of talks. This is due to the fact that the death came a few weeks before the conclusion of the talks.

Burundi peace talks were prompted by attacks on the population by armed groups that did not subscribe to power-sharing between Hutu and Tutsi parties. This necessitated an external peace process which has been fraught with difficulties.

Two months before his death, former Tanzanian president Julius Nyerere had expressed his frustration with the peace talks blaming the Burundi government and some parties of employing delaying tactics and lack of sincerity. In this context, the death is seen by many as a possible death knell for the proposed peace deal, which many of the parties seemed reluctant to take concrete steps to achieve.

Government officials have continually expressed exasperation at armed groups continued hostility and killings and many of the rebel groups would gladly see the talks fail so as to get an opportunity to justify an all out onslaught against government forces.

Speaking from Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on the impact of the facilitators demise on the talks, Jean Minani, the president of FRODEBU;-external faction- a Hutu-led party said that the death was " a loss." "It is true that Burundians and Tanzanians have been deprived of a good leader". He noted that it had come at a crucial point in the talks." He has died just before we finish the process, but we must finish it."

Not everybody is as convinced about what will happen now that the mediator of the talks is dead and many fear that extremist groups will take advantage of the event to create even more obstacles. Speaking from Dar es Salaam, Joseph Karumba; the president of FROLINA -external faction-another Hutu party represented at the talks said: "Some people might take advantage of the situation to apply delaying tactics to the process."

This is exactly what the government fears, especially with the recent increase in armed attacks from the armed groups. A government official who, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the government was seeking ways of negotiating directly with the FDD armed faction and specifically with Jean Bosco Ndayikengurukiye, its de facto leader. Other stakeholders at the Burundi peace negotiations have often expressed concern at the absence of Jean Bosco at the talks.

Within Burundi itself, a new political grouping, according to independent reports has been created with the aim of stabilising the explosive internal situation. The vast political grouping by nine Burundian parties - Convergence nationale pour la paix et la reconciliation (CNPR) is comprised of UPRONA, FRODEBU (internal), and the small predominantly-Tutsi parties RADDES, ANNADE, INKINZO, PIT, Parti Liberal, PRP, and PSD and is seen by many as an attempt by president Pierre Buyoya to boost his authority.

Observers note that Buyoya's rule has been severely eroded by the inability of the government to stop the attacks and also the reprisals by the Tutsi dominated army on innocent civilians.

It is noteworthy, the analysts point out, that this new group comprises the smaller Tutsi parties who, in times of trouble, are the "ears and eyes" of Tutsis, whose support Buyoya badly needs to strengthen his power base. The internal FRODEBU party, led by Augustin Nzojibwami, is close to the president and may be negotiating with CNDD-FDD on behalf of the government, as Nzojibwami is the cousin of CNDD-FDD leader, Jean-Bosco Ndayikengurukiye.

The rebel attacks have created an atmosphere of ambivalence rather than optimism during the talks. In the last session Minani, the FRODEBU (external) boss had said: "Each time, I try to be optimistic. I try not to be disappointed."

FDD, has not been invited to the talks, although it has had representatives based in Arusha. Moreover, during the last session Tutsi parties indicated a tacit support for the government attempts at getting direct negotiations with FDD.

Speaking during the talks Mathias Hitimana of the PRP, a supporter of Tutsi monarchy said he and other Tutsi opposition parties would withdraw from the talks if FDD was not brought to the negotiation table."It's a waste of time because if finally he (Jean Bosco Ndayikengurukiye) doesn't agree with us," Hitimana said. "Even if we sign, what if he does not agree?" However, the complexity of the talks is that parties ever rarely agreed on anything. A previous session in July ended in disarray with all 18 political parties disagreeing on whether or not the FDD rebel leader, splintered from the CNDD, should be included separately in the talks.

The attacks by the Jean Bosco led faction placed exceptional pressure on the September round of talks. "How can we explain to our population, which is being massacred, that we are negotiating peace and there is no ceasefire?" wondered Augustin Nsegimana, head of INKINZO. He said the ceasefire that was signed in July, 1998, at the beginning of the negotiations had not been respected: "It's a piece of paper. There is no cease fire at all," adding that this made it difficult to continue the talks in good faith.

A signed declaration from a block of Tutsi-dominated parties (ABASA, ANNADDE, AV-INTWARI, INKINZO, PIT, PRP, PSD) said "massacres of a genocidal nature" are still occurring in Burundi and asked "all parties to the negotiations who want peace and not war " to walk out of the talks. Delegates protesting on-going violence had paralysed negotiations for a day in July with a symbolic walk-out commemorating the dead.

Nyerere's death also comes on the heels of such confusion and a deadline set by donors who wanted to see an agreement signed by December, something that many believe to be a near impossibility. Donors paid out nearly US$2 million last year to sponsor the talks and have been impatient with the pace of the talks.

Commenting unofficially a special envoy to the region noted that it was quite possible that the December deadline would not be met but expressed confidence that the process would continue. However, some participants had felt differently when presented with the deadline late September. "We cannot make miracles over night," said Terence Asanze, chairman of the Tutsi-led Burundi African Alliance for Salvation (ABASA). "The key is to reach a stage which is productive. Nyerere had himself criticised the slow pace of negotiations and suggested that, if he could raise the funds, talks should continue without a break until they can hack out a peace accord.

Nyerere, who has organised and facilitated the talks since July of 1998, was able to command support for the talks by officials of the Burundian government and opposition parties something that another facilitator may not be able to achieve. Moreover, the Nyerere

Foundation relied on Nyerere's stature to raise millions of dollars in donor support.

Up until the announcement of the death, foundation officials have been mum on who would take up the almost impossible task of brokering peace between Burundi warring factions in the event that Nyerere's condition failed to improve.

Speaking unofficially before the announcement of the demise, an official of the foundation said that "no one really wants to discuss that because it's like sealing someone's fate before it happens."

Many say that the Nyerere Foundation has gone too far to hand over the process to another facilitator. "We have come really close now. Everything is really hanging in the balance", said one foundation official.

However, officials of the foundation are confident that the peace process will go on. The former president's representative in the foundation Judge Mark Bomanyi, said that "we have no plans to discontinue the talks, we intend to continue."

But regional analysts and human rights groups have cautioned that such an accord might be meaningless. "If they find an agreement under pressure, I'm afraid that agreement is not going to hold," said one Western observer at the peace talks. "My worry is that this agreement is not going to stop the war."

Several suggestions have been put up on people who might take over the process but the foundation officials say that the peace process in Burundi was initiated by the three regional heads of state and would continue unless the presidents of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda met and decided to pursue another alternative.

An informal facilitator of the talks Jan van Eck, a consultant with the Centre of Conflict Resolution has also dismissed such a notion. "It would probably be difficult for anyone to take up the process at this late stage. The process is difficult," He went on to add that he did not think that the process would collapse given that the foundation had a strong and working framework that would enable it to continue with the work. "The foundation has a strong structure, the persona of Nyerere will remain but the process will go on."

This, many people think is too much of an optimistic line but again as van Eck points out the Burundi peace process had not only the backing of Nyerere, but regional heads of state, the Organisation of African Unity and the United Nations.

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