AFRICANEWS

Sudan

A peace not forthcoming

Human rights/war

Negotiations between the National Islamic Front (INF) government of Omar el Bashir and the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Army (SPLA) under John Garang continue to be at an impasse, as the old issues of the separation of religion and state, who benefits from oil exploration, and other sticking points pop their heads up yet again.

Even before the June 2 summit met in Nairobi to discuss peace for Sudan, pessimism was already in the air. The doubts were not misplaced as the warring parties not only failed to reach a consensus, but left Nairobi further apart after President Omar el Bashir refused to meet personally with the leader of the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Army (SPLA), John Garang. Bashir claimed that Garang had snubbed him on three previous occasions.

During the meeting, the two parties sat in separate rooms while the regional leaders sat in another, with Bashir and Garang communicating only through the four-man mediating group set up by the Regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) that has been mediating the parties since 1994. So it can only be hoped that by the time they meet again in Nairobi in July, they will have narrowed their differences. Khartoum and the SPLA have agreed to set up permanent teams to the IGAD secretariat to ensure continuity of the negotiations.

But observers note that this might not be enough. Samson Kwaje, SPLA's spokesman, says: "A handshake between Bashir and Garang is not going to bring peace� The only thing that will help is the resolution of serious and long-standing differences between the two sides." These issues are the sharing of the country's wealth, the type of constitution - whether secular or Islamic - and whether the south should remain part of Sudan or secede all together.

The differences have proved too wide to bridge. Garang didn't shy away from stating during this year's SPLA Day held on May 18 that he would continue the military campaign, "since Khartoum is beyond reform� The National Islamic Front regime cannot be reformed, it is too deformed to be reformed, it cannot be improved, it is too impoverished to be improved," he said. "The NIF regime cannot be reformed or improved, it must be removed."

The roots of the failure of June 2, however, lie in both the present and past. Since IGAD took up the Sudanese issue seven years ago, it has never made a breakthrough, with its summits turning out to be more of talking shops rather than a stage for reconciliation. The nearest the body came to success was in July 1997 when the parties agreed to put the southern question to a referendum. But the deal collapsed after Khartoum reneged on its side of the deal three months later. That has been the status quo and the current military status on the ground in which the government is on the defensive only complicated matters during the talks.

In the weeks preceding the meeting, government troops had lost to the SPLA strategic positions in the east, central, and southern parts of the country. A week before the summit, its 7,000 troops who had participated in the offensive in Nuba Mountains were forced to quit areas it had taken ten days earlier. It had also lost important garrison towns in Blue Nile province. But it is the outcome of the battles in western Bahr el Ghazal that has left Khartoum on the edge.

An hour before the start of the summit, SPLA forces captured the key garrison town of Raga in the province, leaving the government with only two towns in the expansive, famine prone area. Two days before, two other towns, Deim Zubeir and Yabulu near the provincial capital, Wau, had fallen to the rebels, sending government troops fleeing to Wau. Now fears are rising that the SPLA, which recently benefited from a US$3 million grant from the U.S. as a member of the opposition umbrella, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), will attack Wau. Such an attack will be costly on both sides since the town, together with Juba in Eastern Equatoria and Malakal in Western Upper Nile, are the three southern cities that are heavily defended by government troops.

In the host city of Nairobi, Kenya's President Daniel arap Moi had pleaded with Bashir and Garang to "engage in sustained negotiation with greater determination." But minds had already been set and Khartoum was definitely not going to agree to Moi's call that it makes a "definite commitment to the separation of religion and state within an appropriate federal constitutional framework." The fusion of religion and politics is the pillar upon which the Islamic generals derive their power. Any reconciliation was further ruled out by Moi's other pleas: a referendum on the issue of self-determination, the type of government to be installed during an interim period, and the sharing of resources.

These are issues that Khartoum has never been comfortable to talk about, and left no indications that it was ready to do so. It wasn't surprising that SPLA delegates had earlier accused Khartoum of not being interested in peace, but only seeking a breather from the fighting. "The government is not serious. It wants to use the meeting as a publicity stunt," said Hatem al-Sir Ali, a spokesman for the NDA.

Khartoum insisted on a cease-fire, arguing that there had to be one if any negotiations were to proceed. Bashir, who in April rejected a cease-fire offer by the SPLA, indicated that he wouldn't compromise until a "comprehensive cease-fire" was in place. Foreign Minister Mustafa Osman Ismail agreed, saying that anything short of a cease-fire was tantamount to failure. "If the summit does not come out with a cease-fire, the international community will consider it a failure."

But the SPLA not only ruled out a truce, but also stuck to its demand that there be no negotiations until the government ceased the development, exploration, and exporting of oil. That is not what Bashir wanted to hear, since it hits him where it hurts most. Since August 1999, when Sudan started exporting oil, Bashir's government has been comfortable in waging the war using the US$400 million in oil exports it earns per year. But that has not delivered victory.

Analysts agree, saying that the government desperately wants a pause in the fighting, not to explore peace avenues but to reorganise its forces and militias, especially around the oil fields in Unity State and Upper Nile provinces. This was more so now that the SPLA and its rival, the Sudan People's Defence Forces (SPDF) have signed a declaration to merge the two groups. Though this deal is dogged by controversy, all indications are there that the merger threatens the security of the oilfields where both rebel groups have troops.

A worried Khartoum has therefore seen to it that all its southern militia factions are united under Paulino Matip, a Nuer warlord on its payroll. In addition, Bashir has also brought in the Popular Defence Force (PDF), the formal name of the Mujahidiin (holy fighters) who, together with radical students of the Sudan Students' Union, believe that the war is a Jihad (Holy War) that they are ready to fight. To give these shock troops morale, Bashir is amplifying and distorting the religious angle of the war, accusing the SPLA of seeking to create an oil state in Bahr el Ghazal that borders the oil fields in Unity State.

Portraying the war as a Jihad is a tactic that has worked in the past. On June 7, Bashir told the Mujahidiin that the time has come to fight, since Islam was under siege. "Man can die for several reasons but a good death, martyrdom, is what we are looking for�We will go ahead on the road to Jihad and martyrdom and will never allow separation of religion from the state," he said. The following day, he allocated 200 million dinars for these fighters.

Armed with emergency powers granted to him by Parliament, and vowing that his "soldiers will teach the rebels an unforgettable lesson," Bashir has also announced the resumption of the air strikes suspended on May 25 after raids in Nuba Mountains. His anger came after the government lost another town, Boro, near the border with Central African Republic completing its rout from the whole of southwestern Bahr el Ghazal.

At the moment, the SPLA controls Warab State, which separates Wau from Unity, and so the rebels know that by capturing Wau they will be in a better position to disrupt the oil installations. Analysts argue that if Wau falls, then the oilfields are gone. Since the Mujahidiin believe that the oil is Allah's gift for their effort, they are volunteering in hundreds.

Bashir has vowed never to give up the fields, saying that his "forces will fight for oil until death." That death might be near, since SPLA forces are stationed 19 kilometres west of Wau. Recently, Khartoum's Minister of Finance and National Economy, Abdel Rahim Hamdi, told businessmen that if they don't invest now in Sudan's oil industry they would be missing the "opportunity of a lifetime." It might also be an opportunity to jump into hell.

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