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Somalia has not known peace since January 1991 when the then ruler Mohamed Siad Barre fled the capital in the face of a rebel onslaught. After numerous attempts by the international community to restore order, Somalia has been left to clan warlords. |
Until July 13, 1993, the world saw Somalia as a needy country that could be reformed. Prior to that date, the United Nations made numerous attempts to restore order to the country after Mohamed Siad Barre fled the capital leaving it to clan warlords.
With an Egyptian at the helm of the world body, the then US President George Bush was convinced to send marines to help in delivery of food aid in December 1992. It appeared a solemn act just before Christmas. US marines waded onto the Somali beach with clan warlords observing a rare truce.
US marines began the task of ensuring that food got to needy Somalis who were dying from famine. Pictures of skeleton-like Somalis were beamed all over the world. However, within a few months, the food situation improved. Top warlord Mohamed Farah Aideed demanded control of Mogadishu. US soldiers and other peacekeepers became virtual prisoners. There were 30,000 peacekeepers from 21 countries. Pakistan, with 2,500 soldiers was among the big contingents. At one time, 24 Pakistani soldiers were killed and their bodies mutilated.
The US then declared war on Aideed. A warrant for his arrest was issued. Aideed's fighters were armed mainly with small guns mounted on pick-up trucks.
On July 13, US soldiers, operating under UN umbrella raided Aideed's command headquarters. International journalists got wind of the attack and rushed to the scene. On arrival, they found a large crowd of mainly women which began stoning them. Only one journalist escaped alive. Reuter photographers Hos Maina, Anthony Macharia, Dan Eldon and Associated Press photographer Hansi Kraus were killed.
The killings stunned the world. The exodus started. The US pulled out its soldiers early 1994 after losing 60 soldiers, leaving a UN presence led by Pakistan which also pulled out early 1995 leaving Somalia to the warlords.
In June last year, the then top warlord Mohamed Farah Aideed declared himself President. He travelled to the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa to seek recognition from the Organization of African Unity. His request was rejected. He returned to Mogadishu to face rival warlords Osman Atto and Ali Mahdi Mohamed.
Aideed was wounded mid-July during a battle for the Medina enclave. He died on August 1. His son Hussein Aideed was elected by his clan the Habr Gedir as new warlord. He was also named President.
However, experts on Somalia say there is no way Hussein, 33 can hold the clan together. Agence France Presse correspondent Hugh Nevile who covered the handover told of how Hussein Aideed tried to "appear presidential during an interview wearing slacks, jacket and tie and speaking so quietly as to be almost inaudible." He was flanked by General Jama Mohamed Ghalib the hard-line Foreign Minister in the unrecognised "government of Somalia".
Hussein Aideed promised he would free an Australian pilot Mr Justin Fraser, jailed for 25 years for a forced landing in Somalia. Mr Fraser landed at an airstrip in May in the western Somali town of Huddur when the plane he was flying had engine trouble. He was charged with violating Aideed faction's airspace and was put on trial in the south-western town of Baidoa, found guilty and sentenced to 25 years in jail and fined $485,000.
Australia said in June Mr Fraser was seriously sick after languishing in militia jails. Aideed Ministers said Australian officials needed to show respect because they had written to the late Aideed addressing him as "Mr Aideed" instead of "President Aideed" over the case.
The Aideed government is only recognised by Sudan and Libya and opponents say the elections of the late Aideed and his son as presidents of Somalia were illegal.
All international aid agencies have withdrawn their foreign staff from South Mogadishu and other areas controlled by Aideed because of insecurity and bids to force them and donors to recognise the government as legitimate.
Aideed's son has declared that he wants to extend his territory. However, as he was installed to succeed his father on August 4, the rival Rahanwein clan captured the town of Huddur from his forces.
The question now is what does the future hold for Somalia? Will Aideed's death cause further conflict?
To answer this question, we need to look at the clan politics of this troubled country. The most prominent clan is the Hawiye clan, which is divided into the Habr Gedir sub-clan, which is now led by Hussein Aideed, a former US marine who lived in the US for 16 years. The Aideed family belongs to the Saad sub-clan of the Habr Gedir.
The next most powerful warlord is Mr Osman Atto a former Aideed financier who turned against him last year. In fact he claims to lead the Somali National Alliance (SNA) founded by Aideed. Mr Atto belongs to the Habr Gedir but belongs to another sub-clan called Same.
Mr Ali Mahdi, who controls northern Mogadishu and also claims to be Somali President belongs to the Abgal sub-clan of the Hawiye. He recently issued an ultimatum to Hussein to quit the Medina enclave which neighbours Mogadishu airport. The presence of the Aideed fighters in the area makes the airport inoperable. Anyone flying to Mogadishu has to land at an airstrip in North Mogadishu and then take a car to cross to the South via the Green Line after paying gunmen on both sides.
Back to clan politics. In the north (Somaliland) are the Issaks. This region has declared independence but is not internationally recognised.
Former Somali President Siad Barre belonged to the Marehan clan. This clan is mainly found in the south around Baidoa.
Around Huddur town are the Rahanwein clan. In Kismayu, the main clan are the
Majerteen led by General Morgan.
With Aideed out of the scene, is unlikely that any clan will emerge supreme,
and the international community will keep off Somalia.
The irony of it all is that the population of Somalia, estimated at six
million shares the same language, religion and culture, their only division is
the clans.
The economy is heavily dependent on livestock and cash crops - mainly bananas
grown in the south.
Right now, the top warlords are arming. In a month or two a battle is
expected for control of the airport and the seaport both in Aideed enclaves
but unusable because of threats from the Mahdi clan.
Also, a battle is expected for Baidoa mainly between the Aideed clan and the
Rahanwein clan.
In the south-east, the target is Ballidodgle airbase, a modern airport built
in the 70's by the then Soviet Union. The base isn't a top priority for the
warlords because it is surrounded by thick bush making it dangerous since
gunmen would shoot down any plane using it. It is currently held by the
Aideed clan.
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