AFRICANEWS-Kenya Election Watch

 

A monthly publication of AFRICANEWS

 

Weekly Updates: July 26 - August 02

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For the period covering June 15-July 15, 2002

 

 

Contents

 

Part I: Analysis

1. Shifting ethnic alignments

2. Opposition split as poll nears

 

Part II: Events

1. Glossary of terms

2. Chronology

 

 

Part I: Analysis

 

1. Shifting ethnic alignments

 

By Eric Maino

 

Typical of any election year in Kenya, political alignments and shifts have become evident as the clock ticks towards the general election, expected to be called at the end of the year as per the constitution.

 

The most remarkable political landmark was when the defunct National Development Party (NDP), led by Raila Amollo Odinga MP for Langata in Nairobi, dissolved to merge itself with the ruling party KANU on March 18. This move perhaps could be taken as a guarantee for the ruling party to gather many votes and form the next government.

Odinga, a Luo by tribe, has vast support from his native Nyanza province.

 

Nevertheless, tribes that were formerly ardent supporters are exiting the party as if it were a blazing house. If the current development among the Kalenjin community is anything to go by, then KANU must be flaming down to ashes.

 

The party has received support from the community in the Rift Valley province comprised of Nandi, Marakwet, Tugen, Kipsigis, and Elegeyo. This was so since president Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi is a Tugen, and considering that ethnicity has for a long time determined the voting patterns of Kenyans, KANU has earned massive support because Moi belongs to the community.

 

However, the Nandi Kipsigis and Marakwet are on the exit end of the party, threatening to upset KANU’s credibility and strongholds. It also threatens to weaken the party’s strongholds in the region. Meanwhile, the opposition parties, mainly Ford People and United Democratic Movement (UDM), are having a field day winning supporters.

 

"Following our dissatisfaction with the ruling party, the Nandi community has opted to change alliance and support a more straightforward serious party that will integrate the country and develop the economy," asserted Hon. Kipruto Arap Kirwa, MP for Cherangany Constituency in Trans-Nzoia district. Following his constant disagreement with the ruling party, Kirwa has since been branded by the press as a rebel politician. He once was an assistant minister of agriculture before he was sacked after daring the president to do so.

 

The MP has taken a scheme of "leading the Nandi across the red sea to Canaan." He has immense influence in Trans-Nzoia, Uasin-Gishu, and Nandi district.

 

To prove his seriousness to ditch the party that sponsored him to Parliament, Kirwa, representing the UDM, signed a memorandum of association with the National Alliance for Change (NAC) on June 29 in Eldoret town. He committed himself and the community to "work hand in hand with NAC in the struggle to liberate Kenyans," as he puts it.

 

Over 3,000 delegates attended the meeting from across the three districts. Mwai Kibaki, chairman of the Democratic Party of Kenya (DP), his Ford Kenya counterpart Michael Kijana Wamalwa, and NAC steering committee chairman Dr. Noah Wekesa of Kwanza constituency received the community. NAC, headed by the three, is trying to field a single presidential candidate with the hope of forming the next government. Kibaki is the leader of the Official Opposition in Parliament who contested the 1997 general election and came a close second to President Moi.

 

Nandis have accused the government of sidelining them from the country’s political matters, claiming that they have not been given any tangible post in the current system. They also claim that the government failed to apprehend swindlers who allegedly mismanaged the Kenya Cooperative Creameries (KCC), which used to buy farmers’ milk. The community relied on milk sales for their financial revenues.

 

The same is said of the grain sector. The government is accused of allowing the importation of untaxed grains by political cronies, consequently destabilizing the domestic price that has since plummeted following a glut in the market. Last year, a bag of maize measuring 90 kilograms dropped from Ksh1,200 (US$15.50) to a mere Ksh400 (US$5.20). Tempers flared further following a delay of payment by the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB). The conflict became worse when NCPB imposed stringent conditions for buying the commodity. The community has since interpreted these factors to be calculated mechanisms of ensuring that the community doesn’t grow economically so as to be finished politically.

 

On top of that, large tracts of land in Nandi district formerly belonging to the East African Tanning and Extract Company (EAETC), a subsidiary of Lonrho East Africa, is said to have been dished out to prominent and influential people in the corridors of power, and the rest given to Keiyos and Tugens. The same is said of Maji Mazuri, Kipsomba, and Turbo forest, all in Uasin-Gishu district, leaving the locals landless. Kirwa says there are over 20,000 squatters in Nandi district alone.

 

Although branded a rebel, Kirwa is a hero at home. He is today classified as Kipruto Arap Samoei, a Nandi Oloibon killed by the colonial government in 1905 for his courageous, constant resistance to colonial rule. In fact, the bespectacled lawmaker is so influential across the Nandi community that he has vowed to deliver all eight constituencies held by Nandi MPs in KANU to the opposition.

 

According to a recent survey conducted by Prof. Kibiwott Kurgat, a lecturer at Moi University’s Department of Communication Studies, Kirwa is ranked first with 57 per cent as a preferred leader.

 

In their declaration, the Nandi said: "We join the NAC via the umbrella body of UDM" and concluded by saying: "To this end, we mandate Hon. Kirwa to diligently pursue the ideals and vision of the UDM through integration with the vision and strategy of a government of national unity.”

 

Lack of dissatisfaction is felt too in Marakwet district. With two constituencies, Marakwet East and West, the district has experienced the worst times since its creation in the early 90s.

 

Leading the exodus is F-People national treasurer John Chebii. Chebii is the first Kalenjin to disown KANU way back in 1992 and joined the opposition.

He explains why Marakwets no longer have regards for KANU: "For a long time, we have been neglected by the government. With impassable roads, lack of communication facilities, rife insecurity, escalating poverty levels, the Marakwets feel it is enough and they have to change."

 

Indeed, Marakwet district has been constantly in the news due to increasing cattle rustling that spreads like a bush fire unabated. It is believed that their neighbours, the Pokot community, well armed with sophisticated firearms have unleashed untold suffering with the government doing little to end it.

 

In fact, at one time, 60 people were killed and hundreds of cattle stolen early last year at a place celled Chesongoch, Murukutwo village, and since dubbed the Murukutwo Massacre.

 

All along, the government has been accused of remaining tight-lipped as Marakwet undergo anguish despite the massive support it has advanced to the party.

"Marakwet district is renown for its high quality cotton, wool, honey, pyrethrum, mangoes, oranges, and bananas. It has very rich red volcanic, black cotton, and sandy clay soils suitable for horticulture production; however, it has not been exploited commercially," Chebii reveals.

 

Moreover, the Kipsigis, led by former vocational training minister Kipkalia Kones, are making sharp turns as far as loyalty to KANU is concerned. The Ford People party has also made inroads in the region with a bang. Kones is on the chessboard strategizing to deliver all the eleven constituencies to Ford People, a party led by former finance minister Simeon Nyachae.

 

Kipsigis land is credited for its first class tea and maize production. Poor road networks and political sabotage pitting prominent and popular leaders against KANU have motivated the community to shift to another vessel.

 

The fact that these tribes are determined to ditch the party that has been in power since independence will attract other tribes to join hands and vote out a government many view as corrupt, tribal, and undemocratic with a poor economic outline.

 

For a long time, lack of awareness has been described as the major factor that held these communities to KANU. Today, however, following constant civic education from the Catholic Church, a change of heart has been seen that will in the long run affect the general election results.

 

Basing on the assumption that the three leaders are determined to turn former KANU zones to the opposition, the ruling party will loose 21 Parliamentary seats altogether, as the opposition grows stronger in the post Moi government.

 

 

2. Opposition split as poll nears

 

By Zachary Ochieng

 

The Kenyan opposition is at it again: split as ever at a time when their supporters expect them to use a common front to dislodge the ruling party Kenya Africa National Union (KANU) from power. Parties allied to the National Alliance for Change (NAC) – the Democratic Party of Kenya (DP), National Party of Kenya (NPK), FORD Kenya, and others  – have been sharply divided over whom to field as a single presidential candidate against KANU'S nominee. Despite attending several breakfast meetings in five-star hotels, the party leaders – Mwai Kibaki (DP), Wamalwa Kijana (FORD Kenya), and Charity Ngilu (NPK) – have yet to tell Kenyans who amongst them will lead the onslaught against KANU. The differences within the Alliance were brought to bear early last month when FORD Kenya First Vice-Chairman, Joe Donde, suggested that Kibaki should be locked out of the presidential race because of his age. Donde argued that a person aged over 70 years is unable to lead Kenyans. While his sentiments attracted the ire of his opposition colleagues, those in KANU supported him.

 

Rifts in the opposition continue to widen as each group seeks to make its presence felt.  With the NAC on one hand, there is also the Kenya People's Coalition fronted by FORD People presidential aspirant Simeon Nyachae. The coalition includes Paul Muite's Safina party, Kennedy Kiliku's National Labour Party, and Prof. Kivutha Kibwana's pressure group the National Convention Executive Council (NCEC). James Orengo acts as a lone ranger in his Social Democratic Party (SDP).

 

But it was on Saba Saba Day that divisions within opposition ranks were brought to the fore. Saba Saba (Kiswahili for Seven Seven) is marked on July 7th to commemorate the riots and demonstrations of July 7,1990 that put pressure on the government to repeal Section 2 (a) of the Constitution, allowing reintroduction of multi-partism in the country.  On July 4, 1990, the government arrested and subsequently detained opposition politicians Kenneth Matiba, Charles Rubia, Raila Odinga (now in KANU), and prominent city lawyers Dr. John Khaminwa, Mohammed Ibrahim, and Gitobu Imanyara. Defiant demonstrators marched to Kamukunji grounds on July 7 to demand their release. Police used violence and in the process, 15 people lost their lives and 63 suffered serious injuries. Since then, opposition politicians go to Kamukunji every year to mark the occasion.

 

This time around, different factions of the opposition marked Saba Saba in their own ways. While the SDP, Safina, and NCEC leaders addressed a poorly attended Saba Saba rally at Kamukunji grounds, MPs allied to NAC attended a memorial mass at Nairobi's All Saints Cathedral. But even in prayers, the factions were visibly divided. While the NAC team was at All Saints Cathedral, the Kamukunji group comprising Muite, Orengo and Gatundu South MP Moses Muihia attended a service at St. Stephen's Anglican Church on Jogoo Road. At Kamukunji, Muite and Orengo blamed the poor attendance on heavy police presence.

 

But what was clearly evident was that the Kamukunji grounds, once associated with opposition politics, have now been taken over by KANU. Only a week earlier, KANU managed to attract a mammoth crowd at Kamukunji during celebrations to mark its March 18th merger with the National Development Party of Kenya (NDP). Political pundits argue that it was only Raila Odinga who was capable of mobilising large crowds to Kamukunji but now that he is in KANU, there are not enough protestors left. More interesting was the fact that key NAC leaders chickened out. Kibaki was said to be conducting a fundraiser at his Central Province home, while Ngilu was said to be out of the country. Maverick politician Kenneth Matiba who had indicated a few days earlier that he would attend the service at All Saints Cathedral was nowhere to be seen.

 

In defending NAC'S absence from Kamukunji, Rangwe MP Dr. Shem Ochwodho said NAC decided to celebrate Saba Saba through prayers at the All Saints Cathedral. Said he: "We want all progressive forces who believe in change to work together. The NAC believes in freedom of choice and agreed to support our partners through prayers.” As the NAC and other groups were celebrating Saba Saba in whatever manner, opposition suffered a major set-back when Nyachae announced that groups linked to his FORD People party would not unite with NAC to field a single presidential candidate against KANU.  But in a rejoinder, Kerugoya Kutus MP, Matere Keriri - who is the author of NAC'S economic blueprint - said NAC would dislodge KANU without Nyachae's support, claiming that NAC had a "concrete formula "which it would use… Our common enemy is KANU and not Nyachae. All along he has not been with us and his decision to continue keeping away is his right," he said.

 

On his part, Nyachae was unequivocal:  "We are not interested in getting into an alliance with any group as we know what we want and are ready to achieve it.” Nyachae added that a false impression had been created in the media to the effect that his coalition was already working with NAC. "There is no such thing. It is only the religions leaders who have brought us together in different forums to discuss matters that are of mutual benefit to us.”

 

As expected, Nyachae's announcement did not go down well with NAC, who termed him a "spoiler out to divide the opposition vote.”  The chairman of the NAC co-ordinating committee Dr. Noah Wekesa observed: "All Kenyans believe that only a united opposition can dislodge KANU from power but Mr. Nyachae seems to have a different perception.” With this kind of division within the opposition rank and file, mistakes made during the 1992 and 1997 general elections are bound to be repeated. In the run-up to the first multiparty polls in 1992, the then original Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD), which commanded an almost fanatical following, split into FORD Kenya and FORD Asili when both its leaders – Kenneth Matiba and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga respectively – insisted on running for the presidency. Attempts by religious and civil society leaders to reconcile the two failed. Consequently, the opposition split their vote and KANU carried the day. Come 1997, the major opposition parties initially hinted that they would field a single presidential candidate against KANU'S Daniel Arap Moi, but later scuttled their own attempts as each of them ran from the presidency.

 

If only the opposition politicians could drop their selfishness, chances of removing KANU from power would be very high. In both the 1992 and 1992 elections, the combined opposition presidential votes were more than those of KANU, lending credence to the fact that if a single presidential candidate were fielded against KANU, the opposition would carry the day. But with the unfolding scenario, it is likely that KANU will win the third multi-party polls. With vast campaign resources and a national following, not to mention the recent merger with NDP, KANU will be the party to beat. KANU is now sure of getting votes in Luo Nyanza where it was shut out in 1992 and 1997, thanks to the Odinga magic. With the Luos having trooped back to KANU with him, the element of opposition in that area is very scant.  Unless the opposition comes up with a different strategy, their continued division will forever be KANU'S joy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Part II: Events

1. Glossary of terms

 

All throughout the chronology and updates are sprinkled acronyms referring to various committees, commissions, political movements, etc. Here, we spell out these acronyms and provide some brief background information.

 

CKRC = Constitution of Kenya Review Commission. Chaired by Prof. Yash Pal Ghai, the 27-member group collects the views of a wide cross-section of Kenyan groups and individuals. The commission is supposed to present Kenyans with a new constitution on October 4.

 

PSCCR = Parliamentary Select Committee on Constitutional Review. Chaired by Raila Odinga, Minister of Energy, the committee monitors the work of the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission (CKRC).

 

KANU = Kenya African National Union, the party that has ruled Kenya since independence. Daniel arap Moi is the president of Kenya.

 

NAC = National Alliance for Change. This is a grouping of the Democratic Party, FORD-Kenya, National Party of Kenya (NPK), FORD-Asili, the unregistered Saba Saba Asili, SPARK, and several advocacy groups. The group is striving to field one presidential candidate.

 

KPC = Kenya People's Coalition. This is a grouping of FORD-People, Safina, the Labour Party of Kenya, and the National Convention Executive Council (NCEC).

 

 

2. Chronology

 

In this issue of Kenya Election Watch, information comprising the chronology has been culled from The Daily Nation, Saturday Nation, Sunday Nation, The Standard, Saturday Standard, and Sunday Standard over the past month. For more details of the write-ups below, and for more write-ups, please refer to the Weekly Updates contained within the AFRICANEWS-Kenya Election Watch May 15-June 15 page (click onto “Previous issues” link).

 

June 16 – Police in riot gear break up a National Convention Executive Council meeting held in Nyandarua District June 15 to collect people’s views on constitutional reform. Led by the area police chief, Masai Kyeleve, officers order participants to open the door of the hall, then force their way into the hall. Kyeleye orders the NCEC's Central Province co-ordinator, Ndungu Wainaina, who had organised the seminar, to leave town. Police say the NCEC meeting would interfere with a teachers’ workshop being held in the same area. Wainaina, complying with the police chief’s orders, moves to St Peter's Anglican Church of Kenya, where again police disrupt the meeting.

 

CKRC Secretary Patrick Lumumba says an election held under the current constitution will not solve Kenya’s problems, primarily because the current constitution lacks strong structures that can ensure good governance and prevent corruption. He says that Kenyans’ involvement in the constitutional review process right from the beginning will ensure that the public owns the final document.

 

President Moi says that members of the KANU party, who are fighting over the party’s earlier merger with the then National Development Party (NDP), headed by Raila Odinga, must stop or quit KANU. He says that the merger reflect the wishes of the public. He also warns that the electorate will also reject members who reject KANU and move to opposition parties during the next General Election.

 

June 17 – The PSCCR proposes that the referendum period – which, according to the Constitution of Kenya Review Act should be held within two months of the National Constitutional Conference – be held within a month. A national referendum on the constitution is part of the constitutional review process outlined under the CKRC Act. The referendum, if needed, is supposed to determine, through popular vote, issues or questions that the National Constitutional Conference was unable to resolve.

 

Assistant Minister William Ruto says it is impossible to hold the general election this year under a new constitution, calling such a goal an “illusion” on the opposition’s part. Ruto, who is an Assistant Minister in the Office of the President and KANU’s Director of Elections, says it is absolutely not possible to hold the elections under a new constitution and challenged opposition figures to stop inciting the public over the issue.

 

Opposition parties vow to seek funding from the international community to pressure the government into initiating several reforms before the election is held. Meanwhile, Cabinet Minister Kalonzo Musyoka criticises the opposition for seeking foreign funding, claiming that they are trying to destabilise the government.

 

The Democratic Party of Kenya (DP) will not field a candidate in Ford Kenya chairman Michael Wamalwa’s Sabaot constituency in the forthcoming general election, announces the DP branch in Trans Nzoia. Branch chairman George Muchori Kamau said the move is meant to foster NAC’s spirit of unity.

 

June 18 - Minister of State and MP for Gachoka Joseph Nyaga announces that he will be running for president in the next general election.

 

Tourism and Information Minister Kalonzo Musyoka says President Moi should remain in power until the new constitution is completed. 

 

June 19 – Eleven opposition MPs who are members of the PSCCR resign after they discover that KANU MPs tabled, at a private meeting chaired by President Moi, a proposal to extend the life of Parliament by four months until May 15 so that the CKRC could complete its work. This move automatically extends President Moi’s term by that amount. “Kenyans have already loudly rejected any extension of the term of Parliament or the tenure of President Moi for even an extra day,” Ford-Kenya chairman Michael Wamalwa told The Daily Nation.

 

Edward Lopokoyit, a former commissioner of prisons, says the Electoral Commission of Kenya needs Sh10 billion [US$130 million] to run its activities properly and an additional Sh5.4 billion [US$70 million] “to ensure the country got the best government after the elections.” He also says votes this time around will be counted at polling stations. The projections of Lopokoyit, who addressed a media workshop, varied with those of ECK chairman Samuel Kivuitu, who said the electoral commission needed Sh5 billion.

 

June 20 – MPs opposed to a proposal to extend the life of Parliament – and, hence, President Moi’s term – collect signatures from their colleagues in an attempt to vote the proposal down. Religious leaders ask Kenyans to resist the proposal by KANU MPs to extend the life of Parliament, and a spokesperson for the United States Embassy says that the U.S. would prefer to see a general election before Parliament’s current term expires next February. Observers say the move is a ploy by KANU to win itself time in office without having to go to the polls.

 

June 21 – President Moi distances himself from the KANU campaign to extend the life of Parliament and declares that he is not behind a proposal by his party MPs to extend the life of Parliament. He insists he is ready to relinquish power at the end of his term and has no intention of extending his rule. "Moi does not dictate to anybody," the president was quoted as saying. "All you are hearing is false...my interest is to ensure I leave the nation a secure place for all the 30 million Kenyans when I leave office...'' He says that, under the separation of powers between the judiciary, the legislature, and the executive, he has no mandate to extend his own term in office.

 

KANU Secretary for Legal and Constitutional Affairs Otieno Kajwang’ says that, whereas Kenyans are unanimous that they want a new constitution before the polls, the document cannot be completed by December.

 

CKRC Chairman Yash Pal Ghai may soon be empowered to withhold the salaries and allowances of commissioners who go against their work ethics. He will also be able to suspend a commissioner for misconduct and declare the office of a commissioner vacant for breach of the provisions of the Review Act. These are some of the far-reaching proposed amendments – drafted by PSCCR – to the Constitution of Kenya Review Act awaiting Parliamentary approval.

 

June 22 - Dagoretti MP Beth Mugo resigns on Friday from her post as vice-chairperson of the Social Democratic Party. She says she was prompted by the party's hard-line stance against NAC. She is particularly angered by SDP Secretary-General Apollo Njonjo's allegations that NAC is involved in a plot with KANU to extend President Moi's tenure of office, and had already sent her formal letter of resignation to Njonjo.

 

Saba Saba Asili party boss Kenneth Matiba and Ford People leader Simeon Nyachae hold discussions in a bid to cement fragile opposition unity. The meeting is also seen as a major boost to the opposition’s desire to field a single presidential candidate in the coming general election. The two leaders agree to jointly spearhead a meeting of top opposition leaders aimed at sealing a deal towards unity.

 

Seventy MPs pledge not to support a KANU plan to extend the life of Parliament. Laikipia West MP Mwangi Kiunjuri and Gichugu MP Martha Karua say they expected to collect 80 signatures by June 24.

The House needs a 65 percent vote to pass a constitutional amendment that would lead to the extension of Parliament's life. Out of the 222 MPs, the anti-extension group requires only 75 to block such a bill. 

  

June 23 – KANU Director of Elections William Ruto told those attending a political rally in Gatundu South last week that: “With or without the support of the Kikuyu community, we will form the next government.”

 

 

Well-placed sources in KANU tell Sunday Nation that a new bill to amend the constitution to pave the way for an extension of Parliament could be ready sooner than most Kenyans think. A KANU MP who sits on the PSCCR says that KANU MPs are pushing to table, "as soon as possible" a bill that would extend the life of Parliament. They intend to seek to change "a few words of sub-section 5 of Section 59 of the Constitution," says the source. It is this sub-section that forbids an extension of Parliament's five-year term except in time of war. The intended amendment would introduce wording to the effect that "exigencies" other than war warrant an extension. Once the wording of the sub-section has been altered, a motion would then be brought to Parliament seeking to extend Parliament for purposes of completion of the constitutional review.

 

Sources to KANU tell Sunday Standard that their desired date for elections is December 2003, a full year beyond the scheduled 2002 poll date. Meanwhile, British High Commissioner Sir Edward Clay says extending Parliament would violate the government’s contract with the voters.

 

June 24 – Police disrupt a private party held over the weekend in honour of William Kirwa, a Nairobi bank employee perceived to be a strong challenger of a powerful politician in the coming general election. The officers, in riot gear, arrive at Kirwa's father's home in Kiplombe, in Eldoret North constituency, and order the gathering to disperse.

 

Foreign Affairs Minister Marsden Madoka insists that KANU will press for an extension of the life of Parliament, with or without the blessing of President Moi. Furthermore, Madoka predicts that more than three-quarters of the sitting MPs will support the move once the relevant motion is tabled in Parliament. Madoka says that the move to extend the life of Parliament to allow the CKRC to complete its work did not come from President Moi, but is work of KANU MPs.

 

Gatanga MP David Murathe claims that KANU has already secretly finalised the creation of 90 more constituencies, and wants to use Parliament as a rubber stamp to legalise the move.

 

June 25 – Minister of Environment Joseph Kamotho breaks ranks with his Cabinet colleagues and opposes calls to extend the life of Parliament. He says Kenyans are eager this year to hold their ninth general election since independence, with or without a new constitution. Kamotho becomes the first Cabinet minister to break the KANU MPs’ trend to crusade for the extension of Parliament.

 

Attorney General Amos Wako says interim amendments can be made to the current constitution to enable Kenyans to go to the polls at the end of this year. He says that, although Kenyans want the elections to take place under a new constitution, that does not seem possible. He also rules out an interim constitution, saying the exercise is too costly.

 

Sixteen more MPs are expected to sign a commitment to vote against the proposed bill to extend the life of Parliament, which would bring the total number of signatures to 86. Representatives of all major parties – including the ruling KANU – have signed the petition.

 

June 26 - Twenty-three KANU MPs defend their proposal to extend the life of Parliament, arguing that Kenyans need to go to the next general election with a new constitution. Legal and Constitution Affairs Secretary Otieno Kajwang' argues that since the review commission must be given the time it requires to complete the review, "the life of the current Parliament must be extended to accommodate the full review.”

 

June 27 – The Akiwumi report on ethnic clashes will not be made public, says Office of the President Minister Julius Sunkuli. Publicising the report would not heal the wounds inflicted by the clashes, he says in Parliament. The minister denies the existence of Kalenjin warriors during the clashes prior to the 1992 elections: "Kalenjin warriors never existed. They are a figment of the imagination of the opposition." During and after the infamous “tribal clashes” of 1992-93, investigations carried out by various national and international human rights groups had found that the government had deliberately fermented these ethnic conflicts to gain an upper hand during the elections.

 

NAC accuses President Moi of using KANU MPs to lobby for the extension of his term. Leader of Official Opposition Mwai Kibaki says President Moi is already talking to KANU MPs to push for the extension. Kibaki says that the opposition would ensure KANU does not get the two-thirds majority vote required for the constitutional amendment.

 

June 28 - Trailed by police and guided by lanterns and car headlights, KANU rebel Kipkalya Kones takes the campaign for his new Ford People party to President Moi's backyard in Baringo Central Constituency.

 

June 29 - President Moi re-affirms KANU's commitment to a new constitution before the general election. He expresses the party's support for a request to extend time for the CKRC to finish its work. He emphasised that KANU believed the forthcoming elections should be carried out under a new constitution.

 

June 30 - President Moi announces his retirement in the most categorical statement on his future so far. "I want to announce that my retirement period has come. . . after this election. All I want to do now is to leave you in peace," he says. He repeats that he is to retire a record four times in his 30-minute speech to thousands of supporters who turned up for a KANU rally at Nairobi's Kamukunji grounds.

 

Announcing that he would soon name his successor, President Moi says he wants to put to rest speculation locally and abroad that he intends to cling on to power. But his announcement is unlikely to reduce uncertainty over the poll, since he does not say when the elections would be held.

 

June 30 - Nairobi Mayor Dick Waweru officially defects to KANU. Waweru, formerly with the Democratic Party, announces the move at a KANU rally attended by President Moi at the historic Kamukunji grounds yesterday. He says: "I am now declaring in broad daylight for all and sundry to hear; that I will sing and dance to the KANU tune. Those who have been claiming that I have been doing so in secrecy should now hear this..." Waweru, the Ruai ward councillor, is immediately asked by President Moi to take charge of KANU affairs in Embakasi constituency.

 

July 1 - MPs who have pledged to oppose the extension of the House are warned against breaking their promise. Led by Official Opposition leader Mwai Kibaki and Ford Kenya national chairman Michael Wamalwa, 13 MPs warned their colleagues to be careful not to betray the electorate. "Any MP who changes his stand during voting in Parliament will be known to have been bought and the electorate should not return him to the House," says Wamalwa.

 

The new KANU vision unveiled on June 29 is roundly dismissed as diversionary and "an empty campaign gimmick.” Speaking separately, opposition leaders accuse KANU of taking Kenyans for granted, asserting that its vision for the new millennium launched by President Moi at the weekend contained the same pledges the government had failed to implement over the years. Former Law Society of Kenya (LSK) chairman Kamau Kuria describes President Moi's promise that the new constitution will create "big posts" as imposing a new document on Kenyans.

 

July 2 - British High Commissioner to Kenya Edward Clay and Office of the President Minister Julius Sunkuli publicly differ over the bid to extend the life of the current Parliament. Whereas Sunkuli maintains that the extension is “inevitable,” Clay says it is “inappropriate.” The British High Commissioner says the country is in a dilemma as to whether it is possible that the CKRC can complete its work and effect the necessary amendments to the constitution. Clay adds that it was still uncertain whether it is feasible for Kenya to go to the polls in December under the old constitution. "The possibility of a constitutional amendment to extend the life of Parliament seems to us the least desirable of outcomes. That is my view and it hasn't changed," Clay said after his closed-door meeting with Sunkuli. It is the second time in four weeks that the High Commission had spoken out against KANU's proposal to reschedule the general election. Its first public reaction coincided with a statement from the United States Embassy opposing the move.

 

Police give consent to Ugenya MP James Orengo to hold a Saba Saba rally at the historic Kamukunji grounds next Sunday July 7. The police also promise to provide security during the meeting, organised by the opposition and convened by Orengo from the SDP and the National Convention Executive Council (NCEC) co-convenor Davinder Lamba. The convenors are assured by the officer commanding Buru Buru Police Division (OCPD) Njue Njagi that the police would provide security during the Saba Saba rally. The meeting will be held a week after President Moi held a similar gathering.

 

July 3 - Former KANU secretary-general Joseph Kamotho faces a fresh onslaught from the party's Young Turks, who accuse him of refusing to tow the party line. Some of them want him sacked as Minister of the Environment for what they perceive as his snubbing of the party's Kamukunji rally, held June 29 and addressed by President Moi.

 

KANU accuses the British High Commissioner to Kenya Edward Clay of meddling in the country’s affairs. Reacting to Clay’s opposition to the extension of the life of Parliament, the party’s Secretary for Legal and Constitutional Affairs Otieno Kajwang' says the envoy’s remark was "in serious breach of protocol… Kenyans will take no orders either from foreign envoys or foreign governments."

 

July 4 - Kenyans want elections held this year under a new constitution, reveals an opinion poll. And they do not think it is necessary to extend Parliament to ensure the new constitution is in place. In fact a large majority of those interviewed for the poll - 63.5 per cent - did not want Parliament to be extended in order to allow the review to be completed. The review should be finished before the general election, said 42.3 per cent of those interviewed for the poll - and 26.6 per cent did not want the reforms linked to the elections. Minimum reforms before the election were wanted by only 15.7 per cent of those interviewed for the poll, which was commissioned by Nation Media Group. Conversely, one in four of those questioned - 25.4 per cent - said they supported an extension, if only to allow the completion of a comprehensively reviewed constitution. However, one in every three Kenyans (32.5 per cent) did want elections under the existing constitution while 11.7 per cent said they had no opinion on that issue.

 

July 5 - The United States adds its voice to the mounting demands for a December general election. "A commitment to timely elections under the rules of the present Constitution will be regarded by the international community as proof of Kenya's maturity and standing as a constitutional democracy," says U.S. Ambassador Johnnie Carson. But as he says this, President Moi tells foreigners to keep off Kenya's internal affairs. "Nobody outside Kenya can decide Kenya's future,” President Moi was quoted as saying. “Let everybody humble themselves to the dignity of Kenyans. Even if we are poor, we should be allowed to move forward with our dignity as we assist one another." 

 

NAC announces that it plans to hold a “million people’s” march to Parliament to thwart KANU’s move to extend the life of the current Parliament.

 

Ministers who fail to show up in Parliament to answer questions will be sent out of the Chambers, says Deputy Speaker Joab Omino. Omino describes as "defiance" the failure by any minister or an assistant to appear before the House to answer questions. He says he is angry that, despite constant warnings from the Speaker, Cabinet ministers continue to absent themselves from the House.

 

The Steering Committee of the Ufungamano Initiative says the question of the extension of the life of Parliament is a non-issue, which should not be up for discussion at all. Committee members note that the law clearly states that Kenyans will have an opportunity to elect their leaders after every five years. Meanwhile, KANU members, who did not attend the Ufungamano Initiative on the Constitutional Review Process Forum, say that KANU will press ahead with its campaign to extend the life of Parliament. A KANU document – titled 'Why General Elections Ought to be Conducted Under a New Constitutional Dispensation' – circulated at the meeting states that the party "would fiercely ensure that the elections are held under a new constitution.”

 

CKRC secretary Patrick Lumumba says a draft Constitution will be ready by early September. He says the commission had completed analysing data from four provinces and staff is working 24 hours to hasten the process. In addition to a draft constitution, a report of views from each constituency will be made available, he says.

 

July 6 – The Kenya government threatens to sever diplomatic relations with countries who meddle in Kenya’s internal affairs, in light of comments made by the British High Commission and the American ambassador urging the Kenyan government not to extend the life of Parliament and to hold the general election in December as scheduled. Meanwhile, the German government detaches itself from the debate on KANU’s proposal to extend the life of Parliament, saying that the decision to extend the life of the current Parliament and postpone the date for the next elections was purely a Kenyan affair.

 

KANU’s point person in the campaign to extend the life of Parliament, appeared to soften his stand yesterday. Otieno Kajwang', the ruling party's Secretary for Legal and Constitutional Affairs, says if CKRC completes its work by the end of the year, there would be no need to extend Parliament.

 

July 7 - Simeon Nyachae, head of the Kenya People’s Coalition, deals a severe blow to the dream of opposition unity by announcing that his group will not merge with the rival opposition group NAC to field a joint presidential candidate against KANU. "We are not interested in getting into an alliance with any group as we know what we want and are ready to achieve it," the Nyaribari Chache MP and head of Ford-People, is quoted as saying.

 

The opposition divides itself over where and how to commemorate the pro-democracy riots (commonly called Saba Saba) that forced the government to accept multipartyism a decade ago. One group plans to be at the Kamukunji Grounds, Nairobi, for a rally, one week after KANU held one there, while another group plans to hold prayers.

 

President Moi’s term should be extended to enable him to complete the constitutional reform, says Garissa Mayor Siyad Osman. Speaking in Nairobi, Osman says it is only under the leadership of President Moi that Kenyans can realise their long cherished dream of a new constitution. If the opposition assumes power under the old constitution, they might refuse to change the constitution, he says. 

 

July 8 – The split in the opposition widens as rival factions attend different Saba Saba day ceremonies in Nairobi yesterday. [The Saba Saba uprising took place on July 7, 1990, when government arrested and held the organizers of a protest rally held at the Kamukunji grounds. The event is seen as a symbol of the common people rising up against government repression and paving the way for multiparty politics]. Leaders of the Social Democratic Party, the National Executive Council, and Safina address a poorly attended rally at Kamukunji grounds in Nairobi, while MPs allied to NAC join worshippers at All Saints Cathedral in Nairobi.

 

Opposition MPs lobby all MPs to boycott the House if a bill to prolong the House is tabled, reveals Kangema MP John Michuki. He says that the boycott idea had been discussed and agreed upon as the last alternative. He says his 83 colleagues who had signed a petition to oppose the extension plans would ensure Parliament did not get the 65 percent vote it required for the bill to sail through. 

 

MP Materi Keriri says NAC will dislodge KANU from power without the support of Ford-People presidential candidate Simeon Nyachae [who heads NAC’s rival, Peoples’ Coalition]. "Our common enemy is KANU and not Nyachae. All along he has not been with us and his decision to continue keeping away is his right," Keriri was quoted as saying.

 

July 9 – NAC announces that it will become a political party in time for the general election. Party leaders Mwai Kibaki and Michael Wamalwa were among 40 politicians gathered at Nyeri to approve the new party's constitution. To be called the National Alliance Party of Kenya, the new party will field candidates from NAC member parties. The meeting, attended by at least 20 MPs, draws up election nomination rules and regulations for the party's electoral board. NAC also says it will not name its presidential candidate until KANU identifies its own.

 

Most of the 30 former MPs attending a seminar in Nairobi oppose the intended extension of Parliament, but warn against mass action. ''We should be careful when calling for mass action,” says Adan Maalim Abdullahi, a former Mandera West MP. “A crisis situation may be created in this country if people take to the streets, which will give Parliament the leeway to extend its life for as long as it wants.''

 

The current controversy over the extension of Parliament could jeopardise the review process, says CKRC chairman Yash Pal Ghai, warning that the process would suffer if Kenyans do not build consensus. He says building a consensus is essential to maintaining the pace currently being spearheaded by the commission.

 

Four MPs – Kipruto Kirwa (Cherangany), Chris Murungaru (Kieni), Matere Keriri (Kerugoya Kutus) and Mwangi Kiunjuri (Laikipia East) – threaten to resign from Parliament if the general election is postponed.

 

July 10 - Presidential candidates are, for the first time, required to deposit a fee of Sh50,000 (US$650) with the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) to be allowed to contest in the next general election. According to the new Presidential And Parliamentary Elections Regulations, 2002, released by ECK, the presidential nominations will be accompanied by the fee, which had not been charged in the past. Also set to go is the ‘X’ mark to identify one’s candidate of choice because ECK believes the mark is confusing to voters. Voters will not be required to use any mark to choose candidates during voting. The rules also cater for continuous registration of voters. The law was contained in the Miscellaneous Amendment Bill enacted three months ago. The new rules are lying in Parliament for approval.

 

Thirty-two MPs reject a campaign by some of their colleagues to name Local Government Minister Uhuru Kenyatta as President Moi's planned successor in the next general election. They argue that the KANU candidate can be chosen only by the party's presidential nomination council, and say that recent public pronouncements by the MPs were their own "personal views.”

 

An exasperated Speaker of the House Francis Kaparo expresses his outrage at the continued absence of ministers from the Office of the President to answer questions in Parliament. He describes their absence from the House as “defiance and contempt of Parliament.”

 

NAC members announce that they will contest the elections under an established party rather than set up a new one. A proposal to set up a new party named the National Alliance Party of Kenya appears to have been cast aside in favour of using one of its member parties.

 

July 11 – The majority of Kenyans support the devolution of power from the Central government but are divided on whether the country should adopt a majimbo [federalist] system of government, reports CKRC chairman Yash Pal Ghai. Based on submissions received so far, the public is divided on those for majimbo and those who favour devolution of power but with the districts as the focus, he says. Ghai says the strong point emerging from the submissions is the redistribution of the powers of the State.

 

In a seeming about-face from yesterday’s report, NAC members register a new party. Dagoretti MP Beth Mugo, who is also convener of NAC’s communications committee, says that the move is to prepare for the next election. She declines to state the party’s new name or symbol, saying that these and other details will be made public in two weeks’ time.

 

President Moi says it is up to KANU party members to choose his successor. He says that, although party members are free to express their opinions, the choice of his successor would be made from the four KANU national vice-chairmen or any party member. 

 

July 12 – The Social Democratic Party yesterday formally joins the National Alliance for Change. Also joining the Alliance were MPs Shem Ochoudho (Rangwe) and George Nyanja (Limuru), who became political orphans after the party that sponsored them, the NDP, merged with KANU on March18.

 

A section of former members of the defunct National Development Party threaten to reconsider their position in KANU if President Moi "persists in his State House schemes to impose a successor on the party.” Alego Usonga MP Oloo Aringo challenges President Moi to "rise to the level of statesman like" Presidents Nelson Mandela and Julius Nyerere of Tanzania. Aringo's statement comes in the wake of a raging debate sparked by a proposal from Rift Valley MPs to have Local Government Minister Uhuru Kenyatta as KANU's presidential candidate in the general election scheduled in less than five months. Some MPs object, saying that the party must elect the candidate: "The arbitrary and unilateral decision to subvert the constitution of KANU would be a betrayal of the letter and the spirit of the KANU-NDP merger and the new KANU party," says Aringo.

 

Top KANU decision-makers reverse an earlier KANU plan to push for an extension of Parliament. Instead, the party will wait for a draft constitution from Prof Yash Pal Ghai's review commission - now expected in early September - before deciding on their next step. The planned motion to extend the life of Parliament may not even be necessary, KANU's Legal and Constitutional Affairs Secretary Otieno Kajwang' says after their meeting, chaired by President Moi.

 

Police in Mombasa refuse to allow an opposition rally planned for July 20. The rally, at Tononoka grounds, is being organised by a group led by Ugenya MP James Orengo and his Kabete counterpart Paul Muite. Makupa police station boss Chief Inspector Ndaiga refuses to show the two politicians a register of meetings planned for the same day in Mombasa nor would he book theirs. "Let me not comment at this stage," Ndaiga is quoted as saying.

 

July 13 – Commissioner of Assize Joyce Khaminwa rules that the Kenyan government must release the Akiwumi Report on ethnic clashes that took place during the months leading up to the 1997 general election. The judge’s ruling comes after Kwale farmer Roshanali Pradan sued the state for compensation over the death of one of his workers and damage to his farm. At least 1,500 people died in tribal violence that erupted in different parts of Kenya in the run-up to the 1997 general election. The attacks were widely believed to have been politically motivated.

 

Police in Mombasa change their minds and allow opposition politicians to go ahead with a rally at Mombasa’s Tononoka grounds on July 20. The rally is being organised by a group led by Ugenya MP James Orengo and his Kabete counterpart Paul Muite and will address recent kiosk demolitions, amongst other issues.

 

July 14 – Attorney-General Amos Wako announces proposals to change election laws so that rigging will become more difficult. Proposals include: votes will be counted at polling stations rather than at a common counting hall, usually the divisional headquarters; disabled and illiterate voters will nominate a relative or friend to accompany them into the voting booth to help them vote, rather than being assisted by polling clerks; and the marking of ballot papers will also be changed from an 'X', which is the recognised mark against the candidate of choice, to any tick or mark other than a voter’s signature.

 

KANU MPs are dividing into factions over the leadership question. Alego-Usonga MP Oloo Aringo and other MPs, who say that KANU is imposing Local Government Minister Uhuru Kenyatta on the party without going through the proper democratic channels, are being pitted against another group that is campaigning to have Kenyatta succeed Moi as president. The festering resentment bursts into the open after it is revealed that President Moi had met delegations, among them KANU's Rift Valley MPs, civic leaders and elders, whom he asked to support Kenyatta for the top job. But what reportedly anges the former NDP MPs are reliable reports that Raila Odinga was also asked to support the Uhuru candidacy during a meeting at State House two weeks ago.

 

Finance Minister and KANU national executive council member Chris Obure contradicts his party’s position to drop plans of extending the life of Parliament when he states that in fact the move had not been abandoned. Speaking in Eldoret on Friday, Obure, who is KANU's national deputy treasurer, said the ruling party was not backtracking on its resolve to have Parliament extended. Instead, the party had decided to await a draft by the CKRC before making its next move. Kanu secretary-general Raila Odinga dismisses Obure’s remarks as "his own standpoint.”

 

July 15 – NAC says it will take advantage of “disunity in KANU” to win the general election. Democratic Party leader Mwai Kibaki and six MPs in the alliance declare at a meeting that they will go to the elections united. "We are now set to wrest power from the ruling party and there is no excuse for failure this time,” says Kibaki.

 

Mombasa Chamber of Commerce and Industry chairman Najib Balala says that coast leaders are shying away from fighting for the presidency. He urged leaders to run for president. "We should stop acting as a mere rubber stamp and get involved in the country's important decision-making processes,'' he says.

 

The so-called Young Turks reiterate their support for Cabinet minister Uhuru Kenyatta succeeding President Moi. Cabinet ministers Cyrus Jirongo and Julius Sunkuli, assistant minister William Ruto, and party deputy organising secretary Peter Kuguru defended their support for Kenyatta, describing him as a nationalist with the ability to lead.

ENDS